NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth year on Monday after four consecutive years of positive performance. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. The index closed that 2022 session at 3,577.03, its lowest point since November 2020. As of Friday, it closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase in 2026 and approaching record highs. The weekly change was a gain of 1.2%.
This current rally ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It is also the seventh to last at least four years. Despite the 119% growth, it remains below the 184% average increase observed in the bull markets analyzed in the study. Previous cycles delivered much higher cumulative gains: the 2009-to-2020 bull market saw a 401% increase, while the 1987-to-2000 cycle surged by 582%. These two periods still stand as some of the strongest advances in historical comparison.
Historical data indicates many bull markets reaching this stage have sustained positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. When markets have reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also noted an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. However, these figures reflect past behavior and do not guarantee similar outcomes for the current cycle.
Corporate Earnings Growth Bolsters Market Confidence
Earnings for companies have shown resilience during this latest phase of the rally. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings were tracking 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of October 9. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at the end of the quarter on September 30. As of October 9, 84% of 19 reporting index companies surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with total earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Furthermore, expectations for the remainder of the year remain high. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. The full-year earnings growth for 2026 is forecasted at 32.4%. Notably, about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Additionally, these sectors account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, based on Barclays research. This indicates technology-related companies continue to play a pivotal role in earnings updates.
Market Environment Continues with Elevated Rates
The upward movement in stocks persists alongside rising U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The central bank stated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated. Its September projections show median economic growth of 2.3% in 2026 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continue to hover near multi-year highs as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite this, the S&P 500 ended that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%. Equities are entering their fifth year close to record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs that remain above those seen in earlier bull markets.